The table contains estimated dates of collisions and evaluations of probabilities of asteroids collisions with the Earth. Evaluations were obtained on the basis of modified Monte-Carlo method, using method based on ratio measures of areas (on the principle of geometrical definition of probability).
Impact probability
# | Asteroid | H | Date | Probability | Potentially hazardous | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21 | 2010 DJ77 | 21.1 | 07/10/2020 | 3.50·10-9 | yes | |||||
22 | 1998 US18 | 20.6 | 10/09/2102 | 3.14·10-9 | yes | |||||
23 | 2002 GM5 | 21.4 | 10/04/2113 | 7.10·10-10 | yes | |||||
24 | 2014 MV67 | 19.0 | 04/03/2019 | 6.60·10-10 | yes | |||||
25 | 2014 NJ65 | 19.3 | 01/07/2022 | 3.70·10-10 | yes | |||||
26 | 2001 FB90 | 19.7 | 03/30/2109 | 3.70·10-10 | yes | |||||
27 | 2011 UE305 | 21.2 | 07/20/2109 | 2.20·10-10 | yes | |||||
28 | 2014 HN197 | 21.0 | 11/30/2041 | 10.00·10-11 | yes | |||||
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Potentially hazardous asteroid is one with minimal distance between its orbit and the Earth orbit (MOID parameter), which is less than 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km), and value of H is less than 22.
Calculations were performed using software, developed under support of research grant for SSTU postgraduates in 2015.