The table contains estimated dates of collisions and evaluations of probabilities of asteroids collisions with the Earth. Evaluations were obtained on the basis of modified Monte-Carlo method, using method based on ratio measures of areas (on the principle of geometrical definition of probability).
Impact probability
# | Asteroid | H | Date | Probability | Potentially hazardous | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 410777 (2009 FD) | 22.1 | 03/29/2185 | 3.02·10-3 | no | |||||
2 | 29075 (1950 DA) | 17.6 | 03/16/2880 | 4.46·10-5 | yes | |||||
3 | 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36) | 20.2 | 09/25/2175 | 3.72·10-5 | yes | |||||
4 | 2001 QJ96 | 22.2 | 09/01/2053 | 2.86·10-5 | no | |||||
5 | 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) | 19.1 | 04/12/2068 | 5.91·10-6 | yes | |||||
6 | 2011 CC22 | 21.3 | 08/02/2045 | 2.44·10-6 | yes | |||||
7 | 2007 TC14 | 22.1 | 10/22/2082 | 9.83·10-7 | no | |||||
8 | 2011 BT59 | 20.8 | 04/10/2052 | 5.90·10-7 | yes | |||||
9 | 2015 JJ | 22.1 | 11/06/2113 | 2.54·10-7 | no | |||||
10 | 2007 FT3 | 20.0 | 10/03/2041 | 1.97·10-7 | yes | |||||
11 | 2007 FT3 | 20.0 | 10/03/2030 | 1.74·10-7 | yes | |||||
12 | 2015 JJ | 22.1 | 11/07/2110 | 1.42·10-7 | no | |||||
13 | 2007 FT3 | 20.0 | 10/03/2019 | 1.15·10-7 | yes | |||||
14 | 2011 YV62 | 21.0 | 05/24/2080 | 1.13·10-7 | yes | |||||
15 | 2001 VB | 18.3 | 07/22/2037 | 1.10·10-7 | yes | |||||
16 | 2008 UV99 | 19.6 | 03/30/2019 | 5.57·10-8 | yes | |||||
17 | 2010 XA68 | 21.7 | 06/04/2037 | 4.16·10-8 | yes | |||||
18 | 1998 SH2 | 20.9 | 09/06/2097 | 2.21·10-8 | yes | |||||
19 | 2001 CA21 | 18.5 | 02/18/2060 | 2.18·10-8 | yes | |||||
20 | 2015 HV182 | 21.7 | 09/01/2046 | 9.91·10-9 | yes | |||||
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Potentially hazardous asteroid is one with minimal distance between its orbit and the Earth orbit (MOID parameter), which is less than 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km), and value of H is less than 22.
Calculations were performed using software, developed under support of research grant for SSTU postgraduates in 2015.